Geothermal is the highest-ticket residential HVAC install in the country. A vertical-loop closed-system install with a new ducted heat-pump indoor unit, electrical panel work, and rebate paperwork commonly clears $35–$60k. The IRA changed the economics of this market overnight — and the contractors who built their funnels around the rebate are the ones eating.
The situation
A Portland-area heat-pump and geothermal specialist runs three install crews — one geo-loop drill team, two indoor crews handling air-source heat pumps and the geothermal indoor side. The owner is a 22-year veteran with a 608 Universal and IGSHPA accreditation. The shop’s calling card is the vertical loop install and full-stack rebate handling.
Average ticket: $28,400 (mix of ducted air-source heat pumps at ~$22k and full geothermal at ~$48k). Margin: healthy. The bottleneck has always been the same — deal cycle. Homeowners take a long time to commit to a high-ticket green-tech install.
The problem
The owner audited the pipeline and found:
- Leads were paint-thin. Roughly 8–14 truly qualified rebate-curious leads per month. Most of the rest were tire-kickers asking for a $48k system because they read a blog post.
- Deal cycle was 71 days. From first inquiry to signed contract. Most of that was the homeowner doing rebate research themselves, talking to a CPA, talking to their utility, and getting confused.
- Rebate confusion killed deals. Three deals in the prior quarter died because the homeowner thought they were entitled to a discount the shop couldn’t legally guarantee — and walked when the quote came in.
- No funnel for rebate-curious traffic. The site had a “Get a Quote” button. That’s it. Anyone with rebate questions either called or didn’t.
What changed with the snapshot
This shop’s install was rebate-led. The focus was less on phone automation and more on capturing and qualifying rebate-curious homeowners through educational content and a structured nurture:
- Rebate / tax-credit helper widget placed on the home page, the heat-pump service page, and the geothermal service page. Asks for ZIP, household size, household income bracket, equipment type. Returns an illustrative estimate of 25C + HEEHRA + Oregon state rebate, with disclaimer language.
- Smart pipeline with rebate-specific stages: Rebate-Curious → Home Assessment Booked → Site Audit Done → Quote Sent → Decision Pending → Won / Lost / Hold-For-Funding. Each stage has a next-step automation tuned for high-ticket green-tech.
- Educational nurture — 9-touch sequence over 21 days mixing rebate primer content, IGSHPA-grade geothermal explainer, NATE-cert-credential trust-builders, and real install timelines.
- Dispatch scheduling repurposed for in-home site assessments — 90-minute slots, owner or senior installer only.
- AI receptionist configured to qualify on the call (“are you replacing an existing system or building new? What’s your timeline? Have you looked at the federal credit?”) and route based on intent.
- Rebate-aware quote template — every line item shows sticker price + net-of-estimated-rebate price, with full disclaimer language.
The 60-day outcome
Rebate-curious lead volume went from 8–14/mo to 42/mo by day 60 — about a 3.5× lift. The helper widget alone captured 31 of those. The remainder came in via phone, with the AI receptionist asking the qualifying questions cold.
Total pipeline value crossed $1.4M by end of month 2. Not all of that closes — but at a historical win rate of ~28% on rebate-qualified leads, that’s ~$390k of likely revenue in the next 90–120 days.
Average ticket held at $28,400 — meaning the lift was real new leads, not pipeline inflation from re-quoting old prospects.
Deal cycle compressed from 71 days to 49 days. The compression came from two places: the educational nurture answered most of the rebate questions before the site visit (so the homeowner showed up to the visit ready to talk timeline), and the rebate-aware quote template removed the back-and-forth about “how much will I actually pay.”
The operator’s take
“We stopped being a geothermal installer marketing geothermal. We started being a rebate company that installs geothermal. The phone has not stopped since.”
The owner noted that the bigger structural change wasn’t the workflows — it was the funnel reframe. Rebate-led marketing pulls in homeowners who’ve already decided to electrify. The selling job is then mostly contractor selection, not category education.
Note
Illustrative scenario for educational purposes. Rebate amounts are estimates and depend on the homeowner’s tax situation, income qualification, state program rules, and equipment AHRI certification. Always advise homeowners to confirm eligibility with a tax professional. Your results will vary based on local market, service mix, and execution.
"We stopped being a geothermal installer marketing geothermal. We started being a rebate company that installs geothermal. The phone has not stopped since."